Offshore wind farms still a major challenge

It took a long time for Denmark to set up in 1991 its first offshore wind farm at Vindeby west of Lolland. As early as in 1983 the first in-depth report was made on offshore wind turbines proposing a farm of 500 3MW turbines. In 1989 the first project was presented as the Vindeby-project together with five other concepts which were never realized.

Birger Madsen was working
for Vestas till the mid 1980es.
In 1986 he and partner Per
Krogsgaard established BTM
Consult publishing World
Market Update.

It was one of the pioneers and veterans of Danish wind power, Birger T. Madsen, from the branch organisation who presented the first realistic ideas of moving wind turbines offshore. At that time he had founded his consulting company, BTM Consult, since then known for its analyses of the global wind turbine market – World Market Update.

Still the most expensive kind of energy
The latest published World Market Update from April 2006 states that offshore wind farms in 2005 accounted for about 1% of the potential global production of up to 60,000 MW under optimal conditions. In his prognosis Birger Madsen assessed that in 2010 offshore wind farms would account for some 6% of the global capacity, but now – one year later – he is no more sure that this prognosis was correct.

“Development of offshore wind farms takes place at a slower pace than we expected in April 2006. Experience from Horn’s Reef tells that it is more expensive, complicated and risky than anticipated to go to sea. Offshore wind farms cost 50-60% more to construct and operate than similar onshore projects, and even if offshore wind turbines generate some 30-50% more power it is still more economical to stay onshore.

This fact is reflected in an increase in the global demand for onshore turbines having pressed up the price much to the disadvantage of the offshore turbines as the risk involved in such projects are much higher. The two Danish demonstration projects, Horn’s Reef and Nysted, established on demand from the authorities and without risk for the operator, charged a cost price of 34 and 37 øre, respectively per kWh. The two next projects being established on market conditions charged an agreed price of 50 øre in order to make up for the risk in a liberalized market.”

It will most likely be political pressure caused by binding agreements setting up targets for sustainable energy in the EU and the European CO2 quotas which may force a massive growth of offshore wind farms, and in that case the ball may not start rolling until after the 1st Kyoto period 2008-2012.

Requires technological leaps
Birger Madsen is of the opinion that offshore wind farms should be considered a specific technology for production of electricity needing a special development of technology. A simple up-scaling of onshore turbines is not enough. Research and development is required when talking foundations, corrosion protection and integration in the onshore network.

“Germany is planning to develop some 24,000 MW of capacity offshore. Combined with the Danish plans such a development will demand a giant extension of the supporting transmission system if the European market for electricity is to benefit from such an environment-friendly project. A total realization of the German plans demands a major part of the constructions to be situated some 30-40 km from the coast at water depths 10-20 meters deeper than the present location of the turbines. Known technology will make such projects 70-100% more expensive than the planned ones.

That is why the German plans cannot be fully completed until we have seen a significant jump in new technology, not least concerning foundations. The German strategy for development calls for turbines of at least 5 MW, and such types at present only exist as prototypes. Even larger turbines making offshore development attractive require use of new materials and innovation within control and regulation”. So Birger Madsen expects offshore wind farms for the next many years to remain a Northern European phenomena.

Standard reference for the branch
BTM Consult’s World Market Update was born in 1990 by the first project of the wind turbine branch monitoring competition. Five years later it was repeated thanks to a governmental grant, but since 1996 the global demand has made an annual issue commercially viable. In the wind turbine branch World Market Update is considered a publication for international reference.

The data of the publication are checking development and market shares, and the global market for wind turbines is focused on so few producers that it is necessary to monitor only some 30 companies to provide reliable information of the market. The 10 largest producers have a market share of 95% with Vestas leading the way having a market share of 25-30%.

For more information: see www.btm.dk